Market Update 11/03

MARKET OVERVIEW

Uptober ended with a bang - #Bitcoin reached year to day highs, with $BTC price tallying a $ 34,713, solid 30% growth over the past past 30 days. With continued TradeFi weakness, the leading fin-tech stocks like $GOOGL, $META and $APPL, losing steam mid month, $MSFT managed to rally on the month entirely. Nonetheless, digital assets continue to de-couple from public equities, gaining a positive momentum and strong performance heading into the year end 2023. For the week, Bitcoin (2.25%), along with Ethereum (2.00%), Solana (34.50%), Tron (7.40%), rallied - with $SOL hitting + 40 dollar mark for the first time since August 2022. For the trailing twelve months, Bitcoin and Ethereum and now Solana are all significantly positive on the year, outperforming both equities and bonds.

A report from Kaiko Data - indicated that majority of the $SOL trading volume, participating in this rally is occurring on Coinbase and Kraken exchanges, that you can reference here. As it appears the demand for Solana is mostly American driven.

Cryptocurrency total market capitalization increased to $ 1.28 trillion. For the week ending on November 3 - two major cryptocurrencies trended upwards as Bitcoin (resistance) $35,750 and (support) $33,455 and Ethereum $1,870 (resistance) and $1,752 (support). Bitcoin daily volume on the day is $24.81 billion and Ethereum daily volume $ 11.27 billion, almost twice the amount versus the previous week. Bitcoin dominance is 53.45%, a high for the year.

BTC and ETH total market capitalizations are equaling $681 billion and $218 billion: indicating 3.1205x ratio, increase from 3.1127x ratio on 10/27. Bitcoin dominance is 53.45%, a high for the year.

Additionally our research team has published a comprehensive report on crypto-market NFT collections, highlighting the differences between Ethereum and Solana based tokens that you can reference here. From our analysis, we concluded that Solana NFT collections follow a more uniform path of token ownership, with high / low ranges of the NFT 'floor price' being evenly distributed. This might indicate higher organic adoption and marketing of various NFT collections comparing to Ethereum. The liquidity measured as a function of number of owners, Ethereum NFT collections have higher market capitalization, higher floor prices, and higher liquidity.


BITCOIN FUTURES

The Futures Markets on CME had a daily Open Interest (totals) 6,599 contracts, price of $35,135 for month end November (Ticker: BTCX3) as BTC futs recalibrated to higher prices and slight contango. The aggregate CME contract volumes for the remainder of 2023 have are 10,837 and total open interest of 19,603 contracts. The futures curve with ME December (+ $355), January 2024 (+ $625) and February 2024 (+ $810) . Bitcoin futures, Volume and Open Interest for the week ending on November 3 2023, is less than on September 2023 with a big spike in the amount of contracts traded on October 23th , 24th, 25th and 26th.

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c1 Bitcoin (trailing) 180 days

c2 BTC/ETH (trailing) 7 days

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The volume adjusted indicators for BTC cryptocurrency, including Accumulation Distribution Line and the Sharpe Ratio, including BTC/ETH ratio are reported on chart 1 and chart 2 for week the ending on November 3rd.

#Bitcoin
○ A/D Ratio - Accumulation Distribution Indicator or ADL (Accumulation Distribution Line) is a volume based indicator that aims to measure the underlying buying / selling pressure by combining money index multiplier with traded volume. For the period of trailing 3 months - Bitcoin price of $34,713 punched through ADL line $ 33,059 that might suggest overbought territory. The traders are possibly distributing (selling) at the higher levels, so ADL can reveal divergence between volume flow and the actual price.

○ Money Index Flow (31 day)- or The Money Flow Multiplier is determined by the relationship between a period’s closing price and the period’s high/low range, adjusted for 31 days, trailing. For this week, we're not reporting MIF.

○ Sharpe Ratio (31 Day) - The Bitcoin SR is the performance adjusted return for the risk free rate (5%) / divided by the standard deviation of return for the period. The week ending in November 3rd has SR of 0.0725 for the past 30 days, comparing to last week SR of 0.025. Please note that Sharpe Ratio take into account volatility in the denominator, even as we see spike in BTC price, so does a level of risk.

#Ethereum
○ $BTC / $ETH ratio traded in choppy waters and relatively flat on the week, with ETH participating along with BTC rally. For the past 7 days Ethereum token ended with 0.0521 per coin, relatively flat from 0.0522 from 7 days ago. Ethereum failed to break on two different occasions a resistance of 0.0529.