Market Update 10/04

Cryptoken Board weekly market commentary ending on Friday, October 10th 2024.

Cryptoken Board UÜ

10/4/2024

MARKET UPDATE

Bitcoin continues to bounce of what appears to be trading range between 58 000 and 66 000, currently pegged to $ 62 375, while for the past seven days many of the altcoins are under performing between from 5%🔻 to 15% 🔻. You can reference the chart below to see which memecoins are the worst performing with Sundog, Hamster-Kombat, Notcoin, Dogs 2 and Sats Ordinals along with Book of Meme losing as much as 22% and as high as 32%.

BTC and ETH total market capitalizations declined over the past week, with Bitcoin falling to $ 1.232 T (decrease from $ 1.300 T) and $292 billion (decrease from $324 billion), with BTC/ETH 4.22x ratio, changed from 3.05x ratio from the end of February. Bitcoin dominance of the total market capitalization is at 56.36% up from a flat 50.00% since the beginning of the year on January 1st 2024.

CME GROUP - FUTURES AND OPTIONS

Bitcoin futures and options volume is far lower for the past seven days with less than 8000 total being traded contracts (1 contract represents obligation to deliver 5 BTC coins) comparing to 25000 daily contracts traded seven days ago.

The futures curve for month end October (61295), November 2024 (61810), December 2024 (62200) and January 2025 (62750). Bitcoin futures are trading in slight contango, indicating a luke-warm sentiment, and somewhat chilly prediction or altcoins.




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CME Group Bitcoin

Bitcoin Performance Table

Bitcoin Performance Charts

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

We are relying entirely on the metrics produced by Cryptoken Board DFA 250 system, for our market commentaries.

#Bitcoin
Moving Average Rank Quantile [MARP] - is a statistical metric attempting to better explain stochastic variable with random returns (with a drift) like Bitcoin price taking into consideration both convexity and curvature of non-normal probability distributions. MARP is produced for every single digital asset in our market universe.

Bitcoin current price $ 61,915 is measured in relation to its 30 day trading range, as a 1/100th percentile including both the maximum, minimum, 1st and 3rd quartile as well as including the closing price. Current MARP 30, for $ 61,915 dollars per BTC is 58 / 100, suggesting that over the last 30 days, BTC price currently falls on the 58th percentile out of 100. MARP 60 is 70 /100 and MARP 90 is 59 / 100.


Money Index Flow (31 day)- or The Money Flow Multiplier is volume based oscillator, using both price changes and trading volumes by keeping track magnitude of UP days and DOWN days. It determined by the relationship between a period’s closing price and the period’s high/low range, adjusted for 14/30/60/90 days, trailing. For this week, BTC's Money Flow Index MIF (14) = 39.89. Values of MFI below 50 are indicating a contracting market.

#Ethereum
$BTC / $ETH (inverse quotation) for the past 7 days Ethereum has under performed BTC by 4.60 % ⬇️ and under performed.