Market Update 09/29

MARKET OVERVIEW

The past 7 days ending in week Sept 29nd, top cryptocurrency pairs traded across a narrow range with a slight uptick in volume. The two major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (resistance) $26,700 and (support) $26,075 and Ethereum $1,625 (resistance) and $1,590 (support), saw weekly volatility of 2.4% and 2.25%. Bitcoin daily volume on the day is $11.8 billion and Ethereum daily volume $ 10.2 billion, traded in their native coins / tokens USD equivalent. ETH daily volume is twice the amount of BTC comparing to their relative market capitalization of $517 billion and $195 billion; indicating 2.6513x ratio on 09/28.

BTC dipped on the week 2.0% before recovering most of the losses, while ETH gained 2.5%.

We had interesting developments this week, with the US House Financial Services Committee questioning The SEC chain Gary Gensler. House Majority Whip (R) Minnesota Tom Emmer captured the highlights, by lambasting the chairman Mr. Gensler and his prior ties to Goldman Sachs and his impartiality when dealing with digital assets, regulation and enforcement. Mr. Tom Emmer, noted Gensler recent legal set-back regarding Ripple Labs. The entire clip you can watch here. According to the tweet 'Chairman Gensler made a career of being relentlessly loyal to the largest institutions in America at the clear expense of innovation, competition, and everyday Americans.'

The Futures markets on CME had a daily Open Interest 14,844 contracts, price of $26,465 and are trading in slight backwardation, with the term structure indicating near term uncertainty regarding a potential Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund approval. The largest CME contract saw volume of (5,892] for month end September, and a somewhat tepid demand is reflected by the flat futures curve with ME October (- $50), Nov (+ $150) and Dec (+ $340).

Bitcoin futures, Volume and Open Interest for the week ending on Sept 29th, is slightly lower than for August 2023.

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c1 Bitcoin (trailing) 60 days

c2 BTC/ETH (trailing) 7 days

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The volume adjusted indicators for BTC cryptocurrency, including Accumulation Distribution Line, Money Flow Index and the Sharpe Ratio, including BTC/ETH ratio are reported on chart 1 and chart 2 for week the ending on Sept 29th.

#Bitcoin
○ A/D Ratio - Accumulation Distribution Indicator or ADL (Accumulation Distribution Line) is a volume based indicator that aims to measure the underlying buying / selling pressure by combining money index multiplier with traded volume. Bitcoin ADL is higher than the current spot $28,179 indicating buying accumulation.

○ Money Index Flow - or The Money Flow Multiplier is determined by the relationship between a period’s closing price and the period’s high/low range, adjusted for 31 days, trailing. For the week ending in Sept 29th, MIF increased from 38% to 52%, indicating an upward trend for trailing 30 days.

○ Sharpe Ratio - The Bitcoin SR is the performance adjusted return for the risk free rate (5%) / divided by the standard deviation of return for the period. The week ending in Sept 29thnd has SR of +0.25 reflecting positive risk adjusted returns, comparing to last week of -2.45.

#Ethereum
○ $BTC / $ETH ratio broke out of support level for the period of trailing 7 days, with ETH trading at 0.06135 (from 0.06) per BTC. Ethereum gained some 2.5% over the past 7 days, likely indicating recalibrating of price volatility.