Market Update 02/16

Cryptoken Board UÜ

2/15/2024

MARKET OVERVIEW

Bitcoin has surpassed $ 1 T market capitalization - Along with high growth US equities, like "MAMAAN" stocks (#Meta, #Amazon, #Microsoft, #Apple and #Alphabet. And you can add #Nvidia now) BTC cryptocurrency is pushing to ATH price of $ 52,000 per coin, leading into period of scheduled halving of the PoW mining rewards. The next halving is expected to occur in April 2024 when reward for each BTC miner will be cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thus cutting the overall new currency supply into half. Historically, there have been four halving cycles.

Coinbase released their Q4 Earnings Report, Transaction Revenue was $1.5 billion, lower 36% Y/Y from $ 2.35 B to $ 1.52 B ( decrease of $ 830 million), Stablecoin Revenue was 694 million, higher 283$ Y/Y, Interest Income, and Blockchain Rewards up combined 504.8 million up from 359.9 million and up 42% Y/Y, as these revenues benefited from higher interest rates and higher staked balances over the course of 2023. Coinbase net revenue remain flat from 2022, with most growth coming from Total Subscriptions and Service Revenue.

Bitcoin ETF's accrued a total of $ 37 B in BTC holdings and a weekly net inflow of $ 2.16 B, with Grayscale having 468k bitcoins (65%), BlackRock 105k bitcoins (14.9%), Fidelity 82.7k bitcoins (11.7%), 21 Shares 24.9k bitcoins (3.5%), and Bitwise 20.1k bitcoins (2.8%) allocation between the leading asset managers.

Blockchain Artificial Intelligence sector continuous to innovate with Render Network $RNDR leading the charge. According to Cryptoken Board classification study, that's e.g. computation models for blockchain AI, additional #crypto tokens providing decentralized computation are $RNDR $FET $HNT $GLM $FLUX $OCEAN $ECOIN $RLC $AKT and $GAL that you can reference here. Bittensor project also begun to provide data incentives via their TAO programme, that enables indexing data opportunities to qualify for the rewards, by adding meta-data to their ecosystem.

Starknet announcement for their airdrop to +1 million qualified wallet accounts that you can see here, (StarkWare developed side-chain, enabling decentralized applications to achieve unlimited computation scales without compromising Ethereum’s security and composability). Wormhole announces airdrop and the new token-economics model that you can see here, (the wormhole bridge is an intricate piece of technology introduced to bridge the divide between different blockchain ecosystems), and Pyth Network announces their phase 2 airdrop (Pyth delivers real-time market data from institutions to smart contracts on any blockchain).

Farcaster, Ethereum Social Media app hits $600,000 during protocol’s second wave of attention according to a report by The Block that you review here, with a product called 'frames' that helped to drive up demand by bringing native monetization into the app embedded links without having to leave the page.

BTC and ETH total market capitalizations rallied over the past week, testing ATM levels totaling $ 1.018 T ( $141 billion increase) and $ 335 billion ( $44 billion increase), as BTC/ETH 3.0388x ratio, changed from 3.0155x ratio on 02/09. Ethereum out-performed against Bitcoin for the past 7 days by 2.00% percent. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is $ 1.94 T ( $.28 T increase ), and BTC dominance at 52.20% from the previous week, continuing to outperform Altcoins.


Bitcoin daily volume equals 3.14% of the total market capitalization, while Ethereum daily volume is 5.47% of TMC.

BITCOIN FUTURES

The Futures Markets on CME had a closing price of $ 52,100 and trading volume of of 6,098 contracts for February contract (Ticker: BTCG4), with traders slightly increased their positions in the post Bitcoin ETF era from the previous week. The aggregate CME Open Interest are currently at 25,655 with a net change from yesterday of 54 and 14,344 total futures volume.

The futures curve for ME February ($51,955), March 2024 (+ $615), April 2024 (+ $1,185) and May 2024 (+ $1,625). Bitcoin futures, total volume for the week ending on February 16th, 2024, is higher than comparing to the previous week at 14,344 contracts, trading in contango.


BITCOIN OPTIONS

Deribit Bitcoin Options call / put ratio is 0.49, with Call Options OI of 173,624 and Put Options OI of 87,177. The four large call option strike price are $50,000 (14k), $55,000 (6k), $60,000 (14k) and $66,000 (12k) while the put option strike price is more evenly distributed between $37,000 - $45,000. The largest options contract by expiration are February 23rd, and March 29th and June 28th 2024.

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c1 Bitcoin (trailing) 30 days

c2 BTC/ETH (trailing) 7 days

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The volume adjusted indicators for BTC cryptocurrency, including Accumulation Distribution Line and the Sharpe Ratio, including BTC/ETH ratio are reported on chart 1 and chart 2 for week the ending on February 16, 2024.

#Bitcoin
A/D Ratio - Accumulation Distribution Indicator or ADL (Accumulation Distribution Line) is a volume based indicator that aims to measure the underlying buying / selling pressure by combining money index multiplier with traded volume. For the period of trailing 30 days - Bitcoin ADL of $51,766 is exactly the same as the market price $ 51,800 that suggests that Bitcoin is fairly priced according to traders.

The ADL is a volume based indicator which was essentially designed to measure underlying supply and demand. It accomplishes this by trying to determine whether traders are actually accumulating (buying) or distributing (selling), so ADL can reveal divergence between volume flow and the actual price.

Money Index Flow (31 day)- or The Money Flow Multiplier is determined by the relationship between a period’s closing price and the period’s high/low range, adjusted for 31 days, trailing. For this week, we're not reporting MIF.

Sharpe Ratio (31 Day) - The Bitcoin SR is the performance adjusted return for the risk free rate (5%) / divided by the standard deviation of return for the period. The week ending in February 16 has SR of 0.40 for the past 30 days, down from 1.40 in the previous week. Please note that Sharpe Ratio take into account volatility in the denominator, even as we see spike in BTC price, so does a level of risk.

#Ethereum
$BTC / $ETH (inverse quotation) for the past 7 days Ethereum has under performed BTC by 2.00% and on higher trading volumes, ending at 0.0534 per coin, increase from 0.0523 from the 7 days ago. For the past 7 days ETH has out-performed BTC, perhaps indicating that market is recalibrating and reaching a top of the trading range.